"Next week in China" fra Lundgreen's Capital

Major Data Releases:

• 16 November: China to hold press conference on national economic performance
• 16 November: China to report October industrial production for firms above the designated size
• 16 November: China to report October energy production
• 16 November: China to report October fixed asset investment levels
• 16 November: China to report October housing prices and home sales
• 16 November: China to report October total retail sales (TRS) of consumer goods

China's macroeconomic calendar remains busy in the third week of November with data releases offering further insight into consumption and investment activity.

October retail sales are expected to capture resilient goods consumption alongside weak purchases of big-ticket items. We expect TRS growth of 0.8 per cent year-on-year, easing from September’s 1.1 per cent. September's rebound was driven by non-auto consumption, with retail sales excluding automobiles up 3.9 per cent. Auto sales remain sluggish, sales recovery in home appliances is limited, and catering and offline spending were weighed down by holiday calendar shifts. Early promotional discounts for the 11.11 shopping festival supported online sales, although demand brought forward for subsequent months limits its overall boost.

Consumption weakness lies in institutional rather than household demand, as shown in spending groups identified by the National Bureau of Statistics. We estimate institutional spenders account for roughly 50 per cent of merchandise consumption, although these purchases have been slowed down by corporate budget cuts. Household merchandise consumption, in contrast, grew by a steady 3.6 per cent in the first three quarters given stable buying of staple goods and discretionary goods against some weakness in big-ticket items. Third-quarter results show the same pattern: consumer staples and value-for-money discretionary categories – such as soft drinks, snacks, personal care, and branded cosmetics – together with sub-sectors tied to overseas expansion all posted revenue growth that is faster than both TRS and profit growth.

Investment activity is expected to remain soft but stable. We expect fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) to decline 6.6 per cent year-on-year in January-October, while the full deployment of RMB 800 billion (USD 119.9 billion) in capital through policy-backed financial instruments as of 28 October should help stabilise activity. Manufacturing investment is projected to have fallen by roughly 1.3 per cent between January-September, along with declines in infrastructure investment of around 3.9 per cent and real estate development investment by approximately 21 per cent. Concentrated implementation of the investment financing tool in the fourth quarter could rapidly reverse the downward trend in investment if most projects get on board.

Chinese equities were mixed over the past week. As of Thursday, 12 November, the MSCI China Index declined by 2.92 per cent while the Shanghai Composite rose by 0.18 per cent. The Shenzhen Component steadied with a 0.2 per cent uptick, while the ChiNext Index climbed 1.79 per cent. Small-cap shares generally outperformed mid- and large-cap peers while growth stocks outperformed value.

Looking ahead, valuations sit at historically low levels, dividend certainty is at a historical high, and the earnings of leading companies continue to recover. In a market where structural overvaluation and undervaluation coexist, low-valuation value investing still presents substantial opportunities.

This piece has been co-produced with Yiyi Capital Limited in Hong Kong, a China specialist and a part of a global financial services group.

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